Cuba's Economy Could Shrink Over 7.2% in 2026, Experts Warn

A new forecast from The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) suggests Cuba's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could shrink by 7.2% in 2026. This projection was called "very strong" by Cuban economist Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo. He believes the actual economic contraction might be even worse.

De Miranda, a seasoned economics professor, noted that key economic sectors are struggling and deep structural reforms are missing. If this forecast holds true, Cuba's economy would have contracted by about 23% since 2019, a massive drop in just seven years.

📄 Where and When

This potential economic downturn is projected for the year 2026. The situation involves the Cuban government and its struggling national economy. The data points to a continuation of a negative trend that began before the pandemic.

📄 Why It Matters

This contraction impacts the daily lives of Cubans, affecting essential services and opportunities. It signals a deepening crisis that could lead to further economic hardship and social instability. The lack of structural reforms means these problems are likely to persist.

📄 What Parties Say

The EIU's report indicates a severe economic outlook. Economist Mauricio de Miranda Parrondo has voiced concerns, highlighting issues like reduced oil supplies from Venezuela and a significant drop in tourism. He also pointed to the suspension of cooperation agreements, such as medical accords with Jamaica.

De Miranda criticized the Cuban government's approach, calling recent measures like Decree 114 "band-aids." He believes the fear of losing political control prevents necessary economic changes.

📄 What Comes Next

With no clear path to recovery under current political conditions, Cuba's economy faces a prolonged period of decline. Deep reforms and lasting structural changes are needed to reverse this trend. Without them, the economic situation is expected to worsen.